:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Oct,
25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 23/0429Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 23/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3169 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Oct), unsettled to active
levels on day two (25 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (26 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 101
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 100/95/95
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  007/ NA-014/ NA-007/ NA

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/25