:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (26 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 375 km/s at 24/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2864 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 089
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 88/84/84
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  008/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/15