:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 04/1321Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 04/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
04/0424Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2702 pfu at 03/2220Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    30/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 111
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov   NA/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  011/012-012/016-019/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/45/55