:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 394 km/s at 04/2117Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
05/1427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2197 pfu at 05/1700Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Nov) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on days two and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 124
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov   NA/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  012/016-019/022-023/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           20/25/35
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/55/65