:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 715 km/s at 07/2012Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 07/0438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 07/1657Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 564 pfu at 07/1820Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (08 Nov, 09
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Nov,
09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 127
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  023/031-019/025-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           35/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/60/40