:Product: 1109RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Nov 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. The largest flare was a C5.7 at 09/0410 UTC from Region 4566 (S07W21). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 798 km/s at 09/0337Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4674 pfu at 09/1630Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov). III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Nov 129 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 139/137/135 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 111 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 011/012-010/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/15 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/20/20