:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 709 km/s at 10/0256Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 10/0124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/0732Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6420 pfu at 10/1550Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (13 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 133
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 135/132/132
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  010/010-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15