:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov,
14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 10/2110Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 11/1432Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/0814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7897 pfu at 11/1555Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 132
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 132/132/130
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/10