Lecture 5a. Aurora Watch!

Wednesday night I got some e-mail you might be interested in...

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 22:35 UTC, 30 JUNE

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ACTIVATION: 06:00 UTC ON 02 JULY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 04 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 02-03 JULY (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 02-04 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 24, 15, 12 (02 JULY - 05 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT, BEFORE MOONRISE

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL UNTIL AFTER MOONRISE, THEN BECOMING HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO DARK SKY SITES NEAR NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN EUROPE TO NORTHERN RUSSIA,
INCLUDING MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND. EXTREME
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA (PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS)
AND MOST OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY UNDER DARK
SKIES.

SYNOPSIS...

At least three solar coronal mass ejections are currently in-transit to the Earth. We expect the first to arrive sometime near 17:00 UTC on 02 July, although it could be several hours earlier or later than this. The second disturbance is probably travelling within the higher-velocity wake of the first disturbance and may serve to strengthen or prolong the duration of the activity associated with the first disturbance. It may arrive during the early to mid UTC hours of 03 July. The last disturbance currently being tracked should arrive sometime during the mid to late UTC hours of 03 July and again may reinforce and/or prolong the duration of the activity associated with the first two disturbances. As a result, auroral activity during the period from 02 to 04 July is expected to be unsettled to sporadically active with a fair chance for minor substorming at times near the local midnight sectors. Analysis of all three disturbances suggest the imbedded magnetic fields may support higher levels of auroral activity than previous disturbances have produced during the last week. For this reason, and the possibility of enhanced activity persisting for a longer than normal period of time, we have issued this middle latitude auroral activity watch. We are expecting additional solar coronal mass ejections over the next 72 hours that will have a high probability of impacting the Earth. Updates will be posted as necessary.

This watch will remain valid until 19:00 UTC on 04 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire.

PLEASE SUBMIT ANY OBSERVATIONS YOU MAKE OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/auroras.html

* * * WE ARE NOW PROCESSING NEAR-REALTIME HIGH-QUALITY MOVIES OF * * *
POLAR SPACECRAFT AURORAL IMAGERY AT THE URL:

http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/aurora.html

** End of Watch **

If you want to have this forwarded to you, and have your name added to an e-mail list for future warnings, e-mail me at welsch@physics.montana.edu!