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WHICH REGIONS WILL FLARE? View all abstracts by submitter

Hal Zirin   Submitted: 1999-10-27 18:01

We have studied 8 years of active region observations from the USAF/Mt. Wilson data set supplied by the NOAA World Data Center (WDC) to confirm the relation between delta spots and large flares. We found that after correcting errors, we were able to describe relationships between active region size, peak flare SXR flux (measured by GOES 1-8 flux), and magnetic classification. We found the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) magnetic classification to be reasonably accurate with a few exceptions, but its area measures to be inaccurate for many of the regions. This is partly due to transcription errors and partly, wrong correction for limb projection. Errors could, however, be repaired by intercomp- intercomparison of multiple observations. We confirm Knzel's original idea that regions classified bgd produce many more flares than other regions of comparable size. Almost all substantial flares occurred in regions classified bgd by the Air Force sites. The regions larger than 1000 microhemispheres (mh) classified bgd had nearly 100% probability of producing flares classified X1 or greater. Yet only a half-dozen of those, showing the "island delta" configuration, produced really great activity. There is a general trend for large regions to produce large flares, but it is less significant than the dependence on magnetic class.


Publication Status: Solar Physics (submitted)
Last Modified: 1999-10-27 18:01
Go to main E-Print page  The Global Dynamics of the High-Temperature Corona
  Tangential field changes in the great flare of May 24, 1990
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