E-Print Archive

There are 4396 abstracts currently viewable.


Search:

Advanced Search
Options
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
Information
Feedback
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
Notification
Predicting Coronal Mass Ejections Using Machine Learning Methods View all abstracts by submitter

Monica Bobra   Submitted: 2016-03-23 12:26

Of all the activity observed on the Sun, two of the most energetic events are flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Usually, solar active regions that produce large flares will also produce a CME, but this is not always true (Yashiro et al., 2005). Despite advances in numerical modeling, it is still unclear which circumstances will produce a CME (Webb & Howard, 2012). Therefore, it is worthwhile to empirically determine which features distinguish flares associated with CMEs from flares that are not. At this time, no extensive study has used physically meaningful features of active regions to distinguish between these two populations. As such, we attempt to do so by using features derived from [1] photospheric vector magnetic field data taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument and [2] X-ray flux data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray Flux instrument. We build a catalog of active regions that either produced both a flare and a CME (the positive class) or simply a flare (the negative class). We then use machine-learning algorithms to [1] determine which features distinguish these two populations, and [2] forecast whether an active region that produces an M- or X-class flare will also produce a CME. We compute the True Skill Statistic, a forecast verification metric, and find that it is a relatively high value of approximately 0.8 plus or minus 0.2. We conclude that a combination of six parameters, which are all intensive in nature, will capture most of the relevant information contained in the photospheric magnetic field.

Authors: Monica G. Bobra and Stathis Ilondis
Projects: GOES X-rays ,SDO-HMI,STEREO

Publication Status: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal
Last Modified: 2016-03-30 20:57
Go to main E-Print page  Hi-C Observations of Sunspot Penumbral Bright Dots  Slipping Magnetic Reconnection, Chromospheric Evaporation, Implosion, and Precursors in the 2014 September 10 X1.6-Class Solar Flare  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Delete Entry 

Key
Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
The Solar Memory From Hours to Decades
Solar chromosphere heating and generation of plasma outflows by impulsively generated two-fluid Alfvén waves
Radio evidence for a shock wave reflected by a coronal hole
Hemispheric sunspot numbers 1874 - 2020
Temperature in Solar Sources of 3He-rich Solar Energetic Particles and Relation to Ion Abundances
The long period of 3He-rich solar energetic particles measured by Solar Orbiter 2020 November 1723
Tracing Hα Fibrils through Bayesian Deep Learning
Energetics and 3-D Structure of Elementary Events in Solar Coronal Heating
Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare
A fundamental mechanism of solar eruption initiation
Thermal Trigger for Solar Flares III: Effect of the Oblique Layer Fragmentation
Measurements of Coronal Magnetic Field Strengths in Solar Active Region Loops
Characteristic time of stellar flares on Sun-like stars
M-dwarf's Chromosphere, Corona and Wind Connection via the Nonlinear Alfvén Wave
Bayesian evidence for a nonlinear damping model for coronal loop oscillations
Small-scale Turbulent Motion of the Plasma in a Solar Filament as the Precursor of Eruption
Validation of the PDFI_SS method for electric field inversions using a magnetic flux emergence simulation
Investigation on the Spatiotemporal Structures of Supra-Arcade Spikes
Magnetic helicity and energy budget around large confined and eruptive solar flares
One dimensional prominence threads: I. Equilibrium models

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey



© 2000-2020 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University