E-Print Archive

There are 4354 abstracts currently viewable.


Search:

Advanced Search
Options
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
Information
Feedback
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
Notification
Testing predictors of eruptivity using parametric flux emergence simulations View all abstracts by submitter

Chloe Guennou   Submitted: 2017-06-16 02:57

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the most energetic events in the solar system, impacting the near-Earth environment. Flare productivity is empirically known to be correlated with the size and complexity of active regions. Several indicators, based on magnetic-field data from active regions, have been tested for flare forecasting in recent years. None of these indicators, or combinations thereof, have yet demonstrated an unambiguous eruption or flare criterion. Furthermore, numerical simulations have been only barely used to test the predictability of these parameters. In this context, we used the 3D parametric MHD numerical simulations of the self-consistent formation of the flux emergence of a twisted flux tube, inducing the formation of stable and unstable magnetic flux ropes of Leake (2013, 2014). We use these numerical simulations to investigate the eruptive signatures observable in various magnetic scalar parameters and provide highlights on data analysis processing. Time series of 2D photospheric-like magnetograms are used from parametric simulations of stable and unstable flux emergence, to compute a list of about 100 different indicators. This list includes parameters previously used for operational forecasting, physical parameters used for the first time, as well as new quantities specifically developed for this purpose. Our results indicate that only parameters measuring the total non-potentiality of active regions associated with magnetic inversion line properties, such as the Falconer parameters Lss, WLss, Lsg and WLsg, as well as the new current integral WLsc and length Lsc parameters, present a significant ability to distinguish the eruptive cases of the model from the non-eruptive cases, possibly indicating that they are promising flare and eruption predictors. A preliminary study about the effect of noise on the detection of the eruptive signatures is also proposed.

Authors: Chloe Guennou, Etienne Pariat, Nicole Vilmer and James E. Leake
Projects: None

Publication Status: Accepted for publication in Space Weather and Space Climate on 2017, June, 8th
Last Modified: 2017-06-20 16:13
Go to main E-Print page  Expanding and Contracting Coronal Loops as Evidence of Vortex Flows Induced by Solar Eruptions  Investigation of Relationship Between High-Energy X-ray Sources and Photospheric and Helioseismic Impacts of X1.8 Solar Flare of October 23, 2012  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Delete Entry 

Key
Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
Energy budget of plasma motions, heating, and electron acceleration in a three-loop solar flare
Space weather: the solar perspective - an update to Schwenn (2006)
Mixed properties of slow magnetoacoustic and entropy waves in a plasma with heating/cooling misbalance
The morphology of average solar flare time profiles from observations of the Sun's lower atmosphere
Indications of stellar coronal mass ejections through coronal dimmings
Could switchbacks originate in the lower solar atmosphere? II. Propagation of switchbacks in the solar corona
Solar large-scale magnetic field and cycle patterns in solar dynamo
Three-dimensional magnetic reconnection in astrophysical plasmas
Energy partition in a confined flare with an extreme-ultraviolet late phase
Alfvén wave heating in partially ionized thin threads of solar prominences
He I 10830 Dimming During Solar Flares, I: The Crucial Role of Non-Thermal Collisional Ionisations
Separating aa-index into Solar and Hale Cycle Related Components Using Principal Component Analysis
Inward Propagating Plasma Parcels in the Solar Corona: Models with Aerodynamic Drag, Ablation, and Snowplow Accretion
Energetics and 3-D Structure of Elementary Events in Solar Coronal Heating
Stellar Superflares Observed Simultaneously with Kepler and XMM-Newton
Medium-term predictions of F10.7 and F30 cm solar radio flux with the adaptive Kalman filter
Resonances in a Coronal Loop Driven by Torsional Alfvén Waves Propagating from the Photosphere
Effects of external flow on resonant absorption of coronal loop kink oscillations driven by an external fast wave: Selective excitation problem
Emerging Dimming as Coronal Heating Episodes
Proxy-Based Prediction of Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Emission using Deep Learning

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey



© 2000-2020 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University