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Self-organized criticality in solar and stellar flares: Are extreme events scale-free ? View all abstracts by submitter

Markus J Aschwanden   Submitted: 2019-06-13 09:15

We search for outliers in extreme events of statistical size distributions of astrophysical data sets, motivated by the Dragon-King hypothesis of Sornette (2009), which suggests that the most extreme events in a statistical distribution may belong to a different population, and thus may be generated by a different phyiscal mechanism, in contrast to the strict power law behavior of self-organized criticality (SOC) models. Identifying such disparate outliers is important for space weather predictions. Possible physical mechanisms to produce such outliers could be generated by sympathetic flaring. However, we find that Dragon-King events are not common in solar and stellar flares, identified in 4 out of 25 solar and stellar flare data sets only. Consequently, small, large, and extreme flares are essentially scale-free and can be modeled with a single physical mechanism. In very large data sets (N > 104) we find significant deviations from ideal poer laws in almost all data sets. Neverthess, the fitted power law slopes constrain physcial scaling laws in terms of flare areas and volumes, which have the highest nonlinearity in their scaling laws.

Authors: Markus, J. Aschwanden
Projects: SDO-AIA

Publication Status: The Astrophysical Journal (June 13, 2019, accepted), in press
Last Modified: 2019-06-15 17:38
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