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Global energetics of solar flares. XI. Flare magnitude predictions of the GOES class View all abstracts by submitter

Markus J. Aschwanden   Submitted: 2021-06-11 12:25

In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying potential energy Ep(t), which is extrapolated in time over an interval of ∆t ≤ 24 hrs. The observed scaling of the dissipated energy Ediss scales with the potential field energy as E ∝ E1.32. In addition, the observed scaling relationship of the flare volume, V ∝ E1.17, diss p diss the multi-thermal energy, Eth ∝ V 0.76, the flare emission measure EM ∝ E0.79, the EM-weighted th temperature Tw, and the GOES flux, F8(t) ∝ Ep(t)0.92, allows us then to predict an upper limit of the GOES-class flare magnitude in the extrapolated time window. We find a good correlation (CCC≈ 0.7) between the observed and predicted GOES-class flare magnitudes (in 172 X and M-class events). This is the first algorithm that employs observed scaling laws of physical flare parameters to predict GOES flux upper limits, an important capability that complements previous flare prediction methods based on machine-learning algorithms used in space weather forecasting.

Authors: Aschwanden, M.J.
Projects: GOES X-rays

Publication Status: Aschwanden,M.J. 2020, ApJ 897:16
Last Modified: 2021-06-12 00:57
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