| Presentation Title: | HOPE Properties and Implications |
| Author(s): | Hugh Hudson |
Abstract:
Hot Onset Precursor Events (HOPEs) generally precede flares, as
detected by the [EM,T] diagnostic diagram (Jakimiec) in GOES/XRS
soft X-ray data. We show here that filament eruptions also have
this property, but that some classic cases of polar-crown filament
eruptions (e.g., SOL1994-04-14 as originally observed by K. Shibata,
which featured in the "solar flare myth" debate) may not. This
is despite their possibly high geoeffectiveness (McAllister et al.,
1997). We argue that GOES misses these events simply because their
HOPE phases have undetectably small emission measures.
Because a HOPE phase almost always occurs, it seems likely that
this process itself - the loading of the corona with slowly injected
hot plasma, containing relatively little mass - actually is the
fundamental instability of the flare process, and that everything
else (particle acceleration, CME ejection, reconnection, and all
of CSHKP) occurs as secondary effects enabled by the development of
this initial instability.