MMmotd March 2011

mmmotd@solar.physics.montana.edu

1 participants
31 discussions

MM#003 Major Flare Watch
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 11 Mar '11

11 Mar '11

MM#003 Major Flare Watch Dear RHESSI Collaborators, We will continue the Major Flare Watch on NOAA 1166 for at least another 24 hours. 1166 has decayed somewhat but is maintaining a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification and bright H-alpha plage. 1166 produced several C-class events and an M1.1 event at 03/10/22:41 UT. NOAA 1169 (N20W03) appears to be forming a small magnetic delta configuration in its leading portion. 1166 and 1169 are expected to produce C-class events with the chance of an M-class event as well. An isolated M-class =>M5 is also possible in the next 24 hours. The position of NOAA 1166 on March 11 at 11:30 UT is: N09W33 (Solar X = 521", Solar Y = 251") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#003 Major Flare Watch
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 10 Mar '11

10 Mar '11

MM#003 Major Flare Watch Dear RHESSI Collaborators, Target region, NOAA 1166, was the source of a major X1.5 flare late yesterday at 23:23 UT. 1166 developed rapidly during the day increasing its spot count, spot area and magnetic complexity forming a strong delta configuration within its central portion. If the region retains its magnetic complexity, an event => than M5 is possible. The position of NOAA 1166 on March 10 at 11:30 UT is: N09W19 (Solar X = 311", Solar Y = 264") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#009 Default HESSI Target
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 09 Mar '11

09 Mar '11

MM#009 Default HESSI Target Dear RHESSI Collaborators, Target region, NOAA 1165, was very active yesterday during west limb passage. It was the source of numerous C-class events and an M4.4 event at 03/08/18:28 UT and an M1.5 at 03/08/20:16 UT. The target will switch to NOAA 1166 today. 1166 produced an M1.7 event at 03/09/11:07 UT. 1166 has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. 1166 and former target 1164 are capable of producing M-class events. There also remains a slight chance of a mid-level M-class event. The position of NOAA 1166 on March 09 at 11:30 UT is: N11W08 (Solar X = 132", Solar Y = 302") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#003 Major Flare Watch
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 08 Mar '11

08 Mar '11

MM#003 Major Flare Watch Dear RHESSI Collaborators, NOAA 1164 was the source of a long duration M3.7 x-ray event at 02/07/20:01 UT. This flare was associated with a strong Type II radio event, a fast full halo CME, and a minor proton event. The largest x-ray event since the last message was an M5.3 at 03/08/10:44 UT. The M5.3 source region was NOAA 1165 on the SW limb. This region emerged on March 3 on the northern edge of NOAA 1165. It entered a very rapid growth phase on March 6 and quickly developed a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. There appears to be a strong delta configuration located in the trailing portion. 1165 is currently displaying bright H-alpha plage and surges as it rotates over the west limb. The target will switch from 1164 to 1165 today. Another large event is possible from 1165 before it rotates off the visible disk. 1164 (N24W66) and 1166 (N11E05) are also capable of producing an event equal to or greater than M5. The position of the target (NOAA 1165) on March 08 at 11:30 UT is: S20W85 (Solar X = 904", Solar Y = -318") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#003 Major Flare Watch
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 07 Mar '11

07 Mar '11

MM#003 Major Flare Watch Dear RHESSI Collaborators, Solar flare activity has increased significantly today. NOAA 1164 was the source of countless C-class events and two M-class events. The largest M-class event was the M1.4 at 03/07/08:07 UT. NOAA 1166 also produced two M-class events. The largest was an M1.9 at 03/07/14:30 UT. The recently emerged region located north of NOAA 1165 produced two M-class events. The largest was an M1.8 at 03/07/09:15 UT. All three regions have complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations. All three regions are capable of producing an event equal to or larger than an M5 class. Since we have a history with NOAA 1164, we will bet on it for at the target region today. The position of NOAA 1164 on March 07 at 11:30 UT is: N24W53 (Solar X = 706", Solar Y = 458") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#009 Default HESSI Target
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 06 Mar '11

06 Mar '11

MM#009 Default HESSI Target Dear RHESSI Collaborators, Solar flare activity is at moderate levels. There are three active regions currently on the visible solar disk with the potential to produce M-class activity. Target region, NOAA 1164, is maintaining its beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. In addition to NOAA 1164, a new region that emerged on March 03 located just north of NOAA 1165 at S18W58 is the source of numerous C-class events. This region has a circle of small spots with mixed polarities. NOAA 1166 (N10E34) has developed some magnetic complexity and is producing C-class events. All three regions are capable of producing an M-class event. 1164 has a slight chance of producing an isolated M5 or larger event in the next few days. The position of NOAA 1164 on March 06 at 11:30 UT is: N24W41 (Solar X = 581", Solar Y = 475") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#009 Default HESSI Target
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 05 Mar '11

05 Mar '11

MM#009 Default HESSI Target Dear RHESSI Collaborators, NOAA 1164 is maintaining a complex beta-gamma magnetic classification with a weak delta configuration located in its intermediate portion. It is noteworthy that despite its magnetic complexity, it is only producing C-class level events for the past several days. There is still a chance of an isolated M-class event with a slight chance of a M5 or larger flare in the next few days. The position of NOAA 1164 on March 05 at 11:30 UT is: N25W26 (Solar X = 385", Solar Y = 506") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#009 Default HESSI Target
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 04 Mar '11

04 Mar '11

MM#009 Default HESSI Target Dear RHESSI Collaborators, NOAA 1164 has increased its magnetic complexity somewhat since the last message. It has reformed a weak delta configuration within its intermediate portion and it continues to produce continuous H-alpha bright points and was the source of several C-class events. An isolated M-class event is possible with a slight chance of an M5 or larger flare. The position of NOAA 1164 on March 04 at 11:30 UT is: N25W13 (Solar X = 197", Solar Y = 515") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#009 Default HESSI Target
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 03 Mar '11

03 Mar '11

MM#009 Default HESSI Target Dear RHESSI Collaborators, NOAA 1164 continues to slowly decay losing several small spots. The chances of a major flare has also decreased but an isolated M-class event is still possible with a slight chance of an event equal to or greater than M5. The position of NOAA 1164 on March 03 at 16:30 UT is: N25W02 (Solar X = 030", Solar Y = 518") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MM#003 Major Flare Watch
by Max Millennium Chief Observer 02 Mar '11

02 Mar '11

MM#003 Major Flare Watch Dear RHESSI Collaborators, NOAA 1164 has lost its delta configuration and has lost some of its overall magnetic complexity. There is a large active dark filament located in the trailing portion. There is a slight chance of an isolated mid-level M-class flare in the next few days. The position of NOAA 1164 on March 03 at 12:30 UT is: N25E13 (Solar X = -198", Solar Y = 515") See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan. Regards, Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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MMmotd March 2011