MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear Collaborators,
The active region complex (NOAA 2993/2994) target
increased its spot count, spot area, and also somewhat
increased its magnetic complexity but the target will
switch to the southwestern limb where NOAA 2992 is located
beyond the limb. It produced a limb occulted X2.2 event
at 04/20/03:57 UT. 2992 also produced an M7.2 event
at 04/20/01:36 UT. 2992 developed rapidly on and
beyond the west limb during the past few days
where it was impossible to ascertain its magnetic
configuration. 2992 could produce another major flare
in the next 24 hours. 2993/2994 could also produce
a major flare.
The position of NOAA 2992 on April 20 at 13:00 UT is:
S34W89 (Solar X =-792", Solar Y = -531")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear Collaborators,
The active region complex target NOAA 2993/2994 was
the source of several minor C-class events and an isolated
M1.0 at 04/19/04:50 UT. The flare was located in the southern
portion of 2993 and the northern portion of 2994 in a cluster
of small spots. Both 2993 and 2994 are now classified as
having beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The largest
event since the last message was an isolated M1.9
at 04/18/17:24 UT produced by the small southwestern
limb region NOAA 2992. We will continue the Major Flare
Watch on 2993/2994 for another 24 hour period.
An event =>M5 is still possible.
The position of NOAA 2993/2994 on April 19 at 14:45 UT is:
N17E45 (Solar X = -648", Solar Y = 338")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear Collaborators,
Target regions NOAA 2993/2994 have been mostly
unchanged. 2993 produced an M1.1 event at
04/18/10:27 UT. 2994 only produced minor C-class events.
The largest event since the last message was a
M4.4 event at 04/17/22:34 UT. The source was NOAA
2992 (S31W83). 2992 is a small region that developed
new flux that resulted in forming a small magnetic delta
configuration. 2994 is displaying a large E-type/beta
sunspot group with a possible delta configuration
located within the trailing sunspot. 2993 currently has
a D-type/beta sunspot group. We will continue the Major
Flare Watch for at least the next 24 hour period. An
isolated =>M5 is possible with a slight chance of
another X-class flare in the next 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 2993/2994 on April 18 at 10:45 UT is:
N17E60 (Solar X = -793", Solar Y = 321")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
Dear Collaborators,
The limb target region has been designated as NOAA 12993
and 12994 which are still too close to the east limb to obtain
their configurations accurately. These two regions produced two
~M1 flares (12993) as well as an X1.1 flare (at 04/17/03:17 UT,
12994) in the past 24 hours. Today we will implement the Max
Millennium coordinated observing plan #003 (Region Likely To
Produce A Major Flare). Additional low M-class flares are expected
with a chance of another major flare (above M5) in the next few days.
The positions of NOAA 12993 and 12994 on April 17 at 07:30 UT are:
N22E71 (-838", 384") and N14E71 (-877", 259")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ying Li (Purple Mountain Observatory)
Dear Collaborators,
Solar activity has been at a moderate level. The limb target region
was the source of three low M-class flares (the largest one being
an M2.2 at 04/15/11:07 UT) and six C-class flares. This region is
rotating onto the visible solar disk. More C-class activities are
expected and further M-class flares are likely in the next few days.
The approximate position of the target on April 16 at 07:30 UT is:
N19E87 (-900", 300")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ying Li (Purple Mountain Observatory)
Dear Collaborators,
Solar activity has increased slightly since the last message.
There were three low C-class flares emergent from a region
that is still beyond the northeast limb. Today the target will
switch to this limb region. Yesterday's target NOAA 12989
was flare quiet during the period. Additional C-class activities
are expected in the following 24 hours.
The approximate position of the target on April 15 at 03:30 UT is:
N18E90 (-940", 180")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ying Li (Purple Mountain Observatory)
Dear Collaborators,
Solar activity has been at a very low level with the soft X-ray flux
flat at ~B3. In the past 24 hours there was only a B2.8 flare produced
by a newly emerged region, as numbered as NOAA 12990 (N16E45).
12990 has a beta/B-type sunspot group and is located close to the
target NOAA 12989. If possible, please also include 12990 in your
field of view. 12989 has been classified as a beta/B-type configuration.
B-class activities are expected with some chance of a C-class flare
in the next 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 12989 on April 14 at 03:30 UT is:
N18E58 (-772", 342")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ying Li (Purple Mountain Observatory)
Dear Collaborators,
Yesterday's target NOAA 12983 was the source of seven C-class
flares (the largest one being a C3.8 at 04/12/06:38 UT) and also a
few B-class events in the past 24 hours. 12983 has rotated beyond
the west limb. Today the target will switch to a newly numbered
region NOAA 12989. This region has an alpha/A-type configuration
but has produced a B-class flare. It seems to be emerging new
magnetic fluxes in its leading portion. B-class activities are expected
with a chance of some low C-class events in the following 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 12989 on April 13 at 03:30 UT is:
N19E71 (-856", 339")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ying Li (Purple Mountain Observatory)
Dear Collaborators,
Solar activity continues at a very low level. The largest event
in the past 24 hours was a C1.6 flare at 04/11/04:59 UT emergent
from a plage region (S14E06, just in the north of NOAA 12987).
Now there are two regions with sunspots on the visible disk,
NOAA 12983 and 12988, the latter of which is a newly emerged
region having a beta/B-type configuration. The target NOAA 12983
has decayed to an alpha/A-type region and produced four B-class
flares during the period. We will watch this region for a further 24
hours until it rotates over the west limb. B-class activities are
expected and some C-class flares are probable in the next 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 12983 on April 12 at 03:30 UT is:
N20W85 (895", 333")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ying Li (Purple Mountain Observatory)
Dear Collaborators,
Yesterday's target regions NOAA 12978/12981 were the source of
two ~B5 flares. Since both the regions have completed the west limb
passage, today the target will switch to NOAA 12983, the only region
with sunspots on the visible solar disk. 12983 produced a B4.0 flare
today and has a beta/D-type configuration. B-class activities are
expected with a chance of C-class flare in the next 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 12983 on April 11 at 03:30 UT is:
N21W75 (863", 365")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ying Li (Purple Mountain Observatory)