MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear Collaborators,
Primary target region NOAA 3006 (D-type/beta-gamma,
S30W16, X= 227, Y= -433") has decayed significantly
especially within its magnetic delta configuration.
3006 was the source of 7 C-class events in the past 24
hours. The largest was a C4.9 at 05/11/13:26 UT.
A major flare =>M5 is now less likely. The target will
switch back to NOAA 3007 (E-type/beta-gamma).
3007 increased its spot count, spot area, and magnetic
complexity with mixed polarities and a possible delta
configuration developing within its intermediate portion.
3007 produced 10 C-class events since the last message.
The largest was a C8.6 at 05/11/15:45 UT. It also just
produced an M1.6 event at 05/11/16:49. We will continue
the MFW today. An isolated major event =>M5 is possible
in the next 24 hour period.
The position of NOAA 3007 on May 11 at 14:45 UT is:
S24E37 (Solar X = -524", Solar Y = -350")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear Collaborators,
At this time we are implementing Max Millennium coordinated
observing plan #003 (Region Likely To Produce A Major Flare).
NOAA 3006 was the source of an isolated X1.5 major flare
at 05/10/13:55 UT. 3006 (D-type/beta-gamma-delta)
added numerous small spots since the last message. The
previously weak magnetic delta configuration became stronger
in the past 24 hours. The delta had been stable and quiescent
for the past several days. The target region NOAA 3007
(S24E49, X= -656", Y = -355") was the source of C-class
activity. 3007 (E-type/beta-gamma) added sunspot area
and spot count since the last message, 3007 produced a
C4.7 event at 05/10/13:47 UT. 3006 and 3007 were flaring
at the same time. The target position will switch to 3006
today but both regions have the potential to produce a
major flare event =>M5 in the next 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 3006 on May 10 at 15:30 UT is:
S31W05 (Solar X = 071", Solar Y = -445")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#009 Default Target
Dear Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 3004 continues to decay losing
its magnetic delta configuration and was mostly
quiescent producing only one minor C-class event
since the last message. The target will switch to
NOAA 3007 (E-type/beta-gamma). 3007 was the
source of 3 C-class events in the past 24 hours.
The largest was a C8.2 at 05/08/19:38 UT. C-class
events likely with a slight chance of an isolated
M-class event in the next 24 hour period.
The position of NOAA 3007 on May 9 at 14:30 UT is:
S23E64 (Solar X = -787", Solar Y = -349")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
Dear Collaborators,
The level of solar activity is low. Target region NOAA 13004 has
been relatively stable in terms of spot area and number of spots
since the last message, again remaining classed as a beta-delta/
D-type sunspot group. This region continued to be the source of
C-class flares since the last message, the largest of which was
a C4.1 on 8-May-2022 at 12:17 UT. NOAA 13006 again showed signs
of decay but remained flare quiet. The Max Millennium Observing
Plan #003 Major Flare Watch will now cease, although the target
remains on NOAA 13004. Further C-class flaring is expected over
the following 24-hour period, with a chance for another M-class
flare.
The position of NOAA 13004 on 8-May-2022 at 18:00 UT is:
S16W66 , ( 835", -240" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Northumbria University)
Dear Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a low-to-moderate level. Target region NOAA
13004 remained stable in terms of spot area and number of spots
since the last message, retaining its beta-delta/D-type sunspot
classification. This region continued producing C-class flaring
activity since the last message, including the largest event of
the period (a C4.8 flare on 6-May-2022 at 16:15 UT. NOAA 13006
again showed signs of slight decay while also producing C-class
flares. The Max Millennium Observing Plan #003 Major Flare Watch
remains in effect on NOAA 13004 for a potentially final 24 hours,
depending on its subsequent evolution. Further C-class activity
is expected in the next 24 hours, with a small chance remaining
for another >=M5 flare.
The position of NOAA 13004 on 7-May-2022 at 15:00 UT is:
S16W50 , ( 704", -226" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Northumbria University)
Dear Collaborators,
The level of solar activity is moderate. The target region NOAA
13004 grew in spot area since the last message while losing its
mixed-polarity spots and developing a beta-delta/D-type sunspot
classification. This region continued producing flare activity
since the last message, including several C-class flares and an
M2.2 on 5-May-2022 at 13:08 UT. NOAA 13006 decayed slightly in
the past 24 hours and also produced several C-class flares and
an M2.7 on 5-May-2022 at 14:02 UT. The Max Millennium Observing
Plan #003 Major Flare Watch remains in effect on NOAA 13004 due
to its magnetic delta configuration. Further low M-class flares
are probable over the following 24-hour period, with a chance
for another >=M5 flare.
The position of NOAA 13004 on 6-May-2022 at 15:00 UT is:
S16W37 , ( 555", -216" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Northumbria University)
Dear Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a moderate level. The target region has been
designated as NOAA 13006 and was classed as a beta/C-type sunspot
group at the start of the UT day. This region continued producing
flares since the last message, including 2 C-class flares and an
M1.5 on 4-May-2022 at 19:40 UT. NOAA 13004 has continued emerging
new flux and is now classed as a beta-gamma/D-type sunspot group.
NOAA 13004 also continued producing flares since the last message,
including 19 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares (an M1.1 and an
M1.6 on 4-May-2022 at 16:25 UT and 20:09 UT, respectively). The
Max Millennium Observing Plan #003 Major Flare Watch remains in
effect but switches in target to NOAA 13004 due to its growth in
both size and magnetic complexity. Additional M-class flares are
probable in the next 24 hours, with a chance for an isolated >=M5
flare.
The position of NOAA 13004 on 5-May-2022 at 13:00 UT is:
S16W24 , ( 375", -208" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Northumbria University)
Dear Collaborators,
The level of solar activity is high. The target region that is now
rotating over the South East limb has continued to produce flaring
activity since the last message, including multiple C-class flares
and an M5.3 on 4-May-2022 at 00:08 UT. NOAA region 13004 is close
to central meridian and classified as a beta/C-type sunspot group,
but is undergoing flux emergence and also produced an M5.7 flare
on 4-May-2022 at 08:45 UT. The Max Millennium Observing Plan #003
Major Flare Watch will remain on the South East limb region for a
further 24 hours due to its slightly higher level of past flaring
activity. Further M-class activity is probable over the following
24-hour period, with a chance for an additional X-class flare.
The approximate position of this region on 4-May-2022 at 14:00 UT is:
S30E85 , ( -821", -470" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Northumbria University)
Dear Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a high level. The target region beyond the South
East limb has continued to be flare productive since the last message,
being the source of several C-class flares, an M1.3 on 3-May-2022 at
07:34 UT, and an X1.1 flare on 3-May-2022 at 13:09 UT. At this time a
Max Millennium Observing Plan #003 Major Flare Watch comes into effect
on this region. Further low M-class flares are probable in the next 24
hours, with a chance for another >=M5 flare.
The approximate position of this region on 3-May-2022 at 14:00 UT is:
S30E90 , ( -824", -475" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Northumbria University)
Dear Collaborators,
The level of solar activity is low. The high-lying coronal loops of
NOAA 12994 have now rotated out of view beyond the North West limb.
All of the spotted regions on the visible disk have been stable and
unremarkable since the last message, while a new region is currently
rotating over the South East limb. This new region was the source of
two C-class flares prior to yesterday's message and two high B-class
flares in the past 24 hours (a B8.2 and a B8.9 on 2-May-2022 at 09:17
UT and 12:59 UT, respectively). The target switches to the South East
limb-crossing location of the new region. C-class flares are probable
over the following 24-hour period.
The approximate position of this region on 2-May-2022 at 18:00 UT is:
S32E90 , ( -797", -494" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Northumbria University)