MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Based on newly found data, it seems that the major M6.6 event at
02/18/10:11 UT had Major Flare Watch region NOAA 1158
as its source region not NOAA 1162 as it was reported yesterday.
The M6.6 location is confirmed by the full-disk
SDO/EVE Soft X-ray image obtained at the time of the flare.
The target will switch back to NOAA 1158. Another event
equal to or greater than M5 is possible before west limb
passage. NOAA 1162 produced numerous C-class events
and a few lower-level M-class yesterday and remains capable
to produce C-class events with a slight chance of another
M-class event.
The position of NOAA 1158 on February 19 at 12:30 UT is:
S19W71 (Solar X = 868", Solar Y = -277")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
A strong EFR located between NOAA 1160 and 1161 was the source of
an M6.6 event at 02/18/10:11 UT. This region has a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration and continues in strong growth phase.
NOAA 1158 continues to slowly decay. It produced numerous
C-class events yesterday. We'll continue a Major Flare Watch
but switch from 1158 to the new EFR in the NE. Another M5
or stronger event is possible from the new region. Another
M-class event is also possible from 1158.
The position of the target EFR on February 18 at 8:30 UT is:
N18E04 (Solar X = -064", Solar Y = 411")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA 1158 has lost some of its magnetic complexity since
the last message. It was the source of numerous C-class events.
Even though it is now in decay phase, it could still produce
another mid to high level M-class event in the next few days.
The position of NOAA 1158 on February 17 at 12:30 UT is:
S21W46 (Solar X = 653", Solar Y = -270")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA 1158 produced numerous C-class events and 3 M-class
events since the last message. The largest M-class was
an M1.6 at 02/16/14:25 UT. 1158 is maintaining its magnetically
complex E-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. A major
flare equal to or larger than M5 is likely within the next
24 hours.
The position of NOAA 1158 on February 16 at 14:00 UT is:
S21W35 (Solar X = 521", Solar Y = -257")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Major Flare Watch region, NOAA 1158, was the source of the first
X-class flare of Solar Cycle 24. 1158 produced an X2.2 event at
02/15/01:45 UT. 1158 also produced an M2.2 at 02/14/17:26 UT.
Both events were associated with Earth directed CMEs.
1158 maintains its strong delta configuration located within
the intermediate portion of its large magnetically complex
E-type/beta gamma delta sunspot group.
Another major event is likely within the next 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 1158 on February 15 at 12:30 UT is:
S21W21 (Solar X = 326", Solar Y = -245")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region, NOAA 1158, was the source of a major M6.6 event
at 02/13/17:30 UT. The largest event since the M6 was a C9.4
at 02/14/12:45 UT. 1158 has a large magnetically complex
E-type/gamma sunspot group. The intermediate portion
of the sunspot group has a strong delta configuration
with an E-W magnetic inversion line. There is a very good
chance for another event equal to or greater than M5 in
the next 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 1158 on February 14 at 13:30 UT is:
S20W11 (Solar X = 174", Solar Y = -224")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
At this time we are implementing Max Millennium Coordinated Observing
Plan #003 (Region Likely To Produce Major Flares). Previous target,
NOAA 1158, entered a very strong growth phase today. It now has the
potential to produce a major flare. It has developed a magnetically
complex large E-type sunspot group with a beta-gamma magnetic
classification with a possible strong delta configuration forming
within its intermediate portion. An M5 event or greater is possible
if growth continues.
The position of NOAA 1158 on February 13 at 01:30 UT is:
S21E15 (Solar X = -236", Solar Y = -244")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
The target region, now numbered NOAA 1158, is mostly unchanged.
It was the source of a B9.6 event at 02/11/23:12 UT. The target
will switch today to east limb watch. Old NOAA regions 1147 and
1149 are returning to the visible disk. There also appears to be
a new region located nearby. This area is the source of occulted
B-class activity. The largest was a B8.6 at 02/12/01:00 UT.
This event was associated with a spectacular eruption.
Additional limb events are possible today.
The position of the target on February 12 at 01:00 UT is:
N25E86 (Solar Y = -879", Solar Y = 415")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA 1153 has rotated completely off the visible solar disk.
It was the source of a few minor x-ray events yesterday.
The new target region is a rapidly developing EFR located
in the SE quadrant. B-class events expected with a chance
of an isolated C-class event if the region continues to
develop. Its sunspot group is currently classified as a
D-type with a beta magnetic configuration.
The position of the target on February 11 at 08:00 UT is:
S19E35 (Solar X = -529", Solar Y = -228")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA 1153 was the source of 4 C-class events. The largest
was a C4.7 at 02/10/12:30 UT. 1153 could still produce an
interesting event from its position located just beyond
the west limb.
The position of NOAA 1153 on February 10 at 16:30 UT is:
N15W91 (Solar X = 938", Solar Y = 247")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)