Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a low level. Yesterday's target (NOAA 11748) finally
appears to
have lost its delta configuration as there is evidence that the leading
positive and
negative umbrae no longer seem to be surrounded by a common penumbra.
While there is some evidence for minor intermediate spot emergence and NOAA
11748 was responsible for the largest flare in the previous 24 hours (a
C6.0 flare
on 20-May-2013 at 16:26), the lack of a delta configuration, significant
spot area,
and more significant activity, means that the Major Flare Watch has ended.
The
new region rotating onto the disk (now designated as NOAA 11753),
responsible
for M-class activity yesterday (an M1.8 flare on 20-May-2013 at 05:25) has
only
produced C-class activity since and is currently classified as beta/Dso. A
new
region has been rapidly emerging over the previous 24 hours in the
South-East
quadrant. Due to the region's rapid emergence and proximity to NOAA 11754,
the
new region is designated as the target. B-class activity is expected and
C-class
activity is possible.
The position of the new region on 21-May-2013 at 17:00 UT is:
S20E62, ( -786", -311" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a medium level. The new region that released the
M-class
event (an M1.8 flare on 20-May-2013 at 05:25) over the east limb, noted in
the
last message, has not produced further significant activity. The current
target
(NOAA 11748) has undergone new intermediate spot emergence, resulting in a
more multipolar configuration. Also, the leading delta spot now appears
more
compact and sheared. Although there is no bright H-alpha plage surrounding
the
delta spot, the region has produced some high C-class activity; including
the
largest flare since the previous message (a C9.6 on 20-May-2013 at 15:06).
Due
to the new dynamics and activity within NOAA 11748, the Major Flare Watch
will
continue for at least the following 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 20-May-2013 at 18:45 UT is:
N12W10, ( 167", 230" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a medium level. The largest event since the last
message was
a M1.7 flare on 20-May-2013 at 05:23, released by a new region that has not
yet
rotated onto the limb. The flare was partially occulted and is likely to be
of a
somewhat higher magnitude. The region was also the source of other high
C-class activity that was been increasing- leading to the M-class flare. In
the
event that activity from the new region increases, the target may switch
following
the next message. For now, the target will remain with NOAA 11748 and the
Major Flare Watch will continue at least until the following message.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 20-May-2013 at 06:15 UT is:
N12W03, ( 56", 231" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a low level. The largest event in the previous 24
hours was a
C6.3 flare on 19-May-2013 at 15:15, released by NOAA 11750. NOAA 11750 was
the source of other C-class activity during the period, likely due new
intermediate
spot emergence that was simultaneously observed. However, the new spots are
aligned with the main preceding and following spots, so no gamma
configuration
is visible. Yesterday's target (11748) has not produced any significant
activity in
the previous 24 hours. The region maintains its beta-gamma-delta
configuration.
The primary negative umbra within the delta spot has migrated closer to the
dominating positive polarity umbra, producing a small but strong polarity
separation line. Due to continued complex magnetic configuration and
strengthening of the polarity separation line within the delta spot of NOAA
11748,
the Major Flare Watch will continue for at least the following 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 18-May-2013 at 17:15 UT is:
N12E01, ( -24", 232" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a low level. The largest event in the previous 24
hours was a
C6.0 flare on 18-May-2013 at 03:45, produced by the target region (NOAA
11748).
The target region maintains its beta-gamma-delta configuration. The
trailing spot
has continued to fragment. The leading delta has shown some signs of decay;
the main negative umbra within the spot has diminished in size. However,
due to
the continued presence of the delta spot, and the previous large flares
released
by the region, the Major Flare Watch will continue for at least the next 24
hours.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 17-May-2013 at 18:45 UT is:
N12E13, ( -213", 233" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a medium level. The largest event since the previous
message was a M3.2 flare on 17-May-2013 at 08:43, produced by the target
region (NOAA 11748). The leading delta spot maintains its configuration.
However, the main negative polarity umbra within the delta spot appears to
be no
longer completely surrounded by the common penumbra. This could either be
an
effect of possible shearing motions or the umbra being ejected from the
delta
spot (which would be unlikely). Due to the lack of major flares over the
previous
48 hours, the Great Flare Watch will end and a Major Flare Watch will now
be in
effect.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 17-May-2013 at 18:45 UT is:
N12E26, ( -403", 232" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a medium level. The largest event since the previous
message was a M1.3 flare on 16-May-2013 at 21:53, released by the target
region (NOAA 11748). The main following spot has shown evidence of
fragmentation over the last 6 hours. The delta spot has been stable
overall, but
the penumbra along the eastern boundary shows some evidence for the
presence
of shearing motions. There is no change to the Great Flare Watch that is
currently in effect.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 17-May-2013 at 01:45 UT is:
N11E37, ( -559", 213" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a low level. There have been no significant events in
the
previous 24 hours. The largest flare of the last 24 hours was a C1.2 on
16-May-2013 at 12:17:00 released by NOAA 11744. However, the target region
NOAA 11748 still maintains a beta-gamma-delta configuration, and has not
shown signs of decay. Minor umbrae of the preceding (negative) polarity
have
emerged within the delta-spot. Also, minor satellite spots of both
polarities have
emerged to the north and east of the delta spot. Considering the number of
X-class events produced by the region previously and that there has been no
significant signs of decay, the Great Flare Watch will remain in effect for
at least
the following 24 hours, but may be downgraded afterwards.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 16-May-2013 at 18:15 UT is:
N11E41, ( -612", 212" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a high level. A fourth X-class event (an X1.2 flare on
13-May-2013 at 01:48) has been released by NOAA 11748, which is now
designated as a having a beta-gamma-delta/Eki configuration. NOAA 11748
shows evidence of continuing flux emergence, including the appearance of a
new
positive spot to the north-east of the delta spot. The opposite polarities
within the
delta spot appear to be separating somewhat, while there is evidence of
shearing
motions along its eastern penumbral boundary. The most recent X-class event
is
of a lower magnitude than the previous one and is spaced more greatly in
time
than the previous two (~24 hours versus ~9 hours). However, the new
continued
flux emergence and shearing motions may result in further instability
within the
region. The Great Flare Watch will remain in effect for at least the next
24 hours.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 15-May-2013 at 18:00 UT is:
N11E53, ( -746", 207" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a high level. A third X-class event has been released
by
yesterday's target (now designated as NOAA 11748). This most recent event
was
an X3.2 flare that occurred on 13-May-2013 at 01:11:00. NOAA 11748 shows
some evidence for containing delta configuration in its leading spot (a
single
sunspot penumbra surrounding two umbrae of opposite polarity; the umbra in
the
north-west portion of the spot appears to be positive and the umbra in the
south-east portion appears to be negative), possibly giving the region a
beta-gamma-delta configuration. The region is still very close to the limb,
so it is
difficult to determine the Hale classification with certainty. Because of
the
possibility that the target exhibits a beta-gamma-delta configuration and
has
produced an X-class event in the previous 24 hours (that was larger than
any
previous events produced by the region), the Great Flare Watch will remain
in
effect for at least the following 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 14-May-2013 at 18:40 UT is:
N12E71, ( -877", 212" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)