MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA 1520 has decayed slightly losing its magnetic delta
configuration but is maintaining its large F-type/beta-gamma
sunspot group. It only produced C-class events in the past
24 hour period. NOAA 1521 located just west of 1520
was the source of the largest event (C9.9 at 07/11/08:30 UT).
Despite its quiescent behavior, 1520 is capable of producing
an M-class event with a slight chance of an M-class event =/>M5
in the next 24 hour period. We'll continue the MFW for at
least one more day.
The position of NOAA 1520 on July 11 at 15:00 UT is:
S16E10 (Solar X = -158", Solar Y = -323")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA 1515 has completed west limb passage. It was
the source of a few minor events yesterday. The new
target is NOAA 1520. 1520 is a very large region with
a complex F-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group.
Its H-alpha plage is displaying bright flare points and
dark surges. Previously somewhat quiescent, 1520
produced 3 M-class events in the past 24 hour period.
The largest was an M2.0 at 07/10/06:27. Additional
low-level M-class events expected with a major =/>M5
event possible in the next 24 hour period.
The position of NOAA 1520 on July 10 at 15:00 UT is:
S17E24 (Solar X = -368", Solar Y = -332")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 1515 has almost completed west limb
passage. It was the source of C-class and low-level
M-class events in the past 24 hours. It is a very dynamic
limb target with numerous limb surges and an active
prominence. Another M-class event is possible in the next
24 hours. NOAA 1520 (S15E42) remains an impressive
F-type/beta-gamma region but is still not flare productive.
An EFR located just west of 1520 at S15E38 is the brightest
plage on the visible solar disk. If it continues to develop, it may
increase the chance of flare activity in and around 1520.
1520/EFR could produce an isolated M-class event today.
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 09 at 01:00 UT is:
S17W77 (Solar X = 879", Solar Y = -288")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region, NOAA 1515 was the source of another major flare
(M6.9 at 07/08/16:32 UT). 1515 has only slightly decayed in
the past 24 hour period. The region classification is now
an F-type/beta-gamma with a possible delta configuration.
Another major flare =/>M5 is possible before 1515 completes
west limb passage. The largest region on the visible disk is
NOAA 1520 (S15E44, -634", -287"). 1520 is classified as an
F-type/beta-gamma region. It also has the potential to
produce an event =/>M5 in the next 24 to 48 hours but so
far has been relatively quiescent.
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 08 at 17:00 UT is:
S17W73 (Solar X = 863", Solar Y = -211")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 1515 was the source of an X1.1 event at
07/06/23:08 UT. 1515 is maintaining bright dynamic H-alpha
plage and its F-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. Another
major flare event =/>M5 is possible in the next 24 hour period.
The bright plage located in the southeastern quadrant
(S17E66, -826", -299" at 15:00 UT) appears to have a complex
E-type/beta-gamma sunspot group. This region is also capable
of producing an event =/>M5 but so far has been less flare
productive than NOAA 1515. Both regions are excellent
targets for large events in the next 24 to 48 hours.
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 07 at 15:00 UT is:
S18W59 (Solar X = 770", Solar Y = -320")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 1515 continues to maintain a complex
F-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group but has lost some
of its strongest delta configuration. 1515 was the source of
countless C-class events and a few low-level M-class events
during the past 24 hours. At this time we are suspending
the MM#018 (Region Likely To Produce Great Flares) observing
plan and return to the Major Flare Watch plan. An X-class event
=/>X5 is less likely in the next 24 hours. 1515 still has
the potential to produce an M-class event =/>M5. The large
region near the southeast limb (S17E77) could also be a source
of an M-class event.
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 06 at 13:00 UT is:
S17W44 (Solar X = 628", Solar Y = -315")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#018 Great Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 1515 continues to maintain its large and
magnetically complex F-type/beta-gamma-delta classification.
1515 has multiple delta configurations located in the central
portion of its sunspot group. 1515 produced several M-class
events including an M6.1 at 07/05/11:44 UT, an M4.7 at
07/05/03:36 UT and an M4.6 at 07/04/22:09 UT. M-class events
expected with a possibility of an X-class event = or >X5 in the
next 24 to 48 hours. At this time we are implementing new
Max Millennium coordinated observing plan #018
(Region Likely To Produce Great Flares).
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 05 at 13:00 UT is:
S17W31 (Solar X = 466", Solar Y = -322")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
After decaying early in the period yesterday, target region
NOAA 1515 has increased sunspot area and count as well
as magnetic complexity. 1515 is now a large active region
with an F-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. There
is an area within the central portion that has developed
negative polarity spots and plage surrounded by positive
polarity spots and plage. 1515 was the source of numerous
C-class events and four M-class events since the last message.
The largest event was an M5.3 at 07/04/09:54 UT.
At this time we are implementing Max Millennium
observing plan #003 (Region Likely To Produce A Major Flare).
M-class events = or >M5 are likely in the next 24 hour period.
There is also a chance of an X-class event in the next 24 to
48 hours.
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 04 at 15:00 UT is:
S16W19 (Solar X = 296", Solar Y = -310")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA 11515 was the source of three M-class flares since the last message,
including an M5.6 at 10:43 UT yesterday, and shall become the new target
region. The region is classified as a beta-gamma/E-type region and has
shown signs of decay over the past 24 hours, although the southwestern
sunspot has retained some mixed polarity. Further C-level activity expected
with chance for additional low M-class events.
The position of NOAA 11515 on 3-Jul-2011 at 12:00 UT is:
S17W03, ( 43", -327" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 11513 has maintained area and increased in number
of spots, retaining a beta-gamma/D-type sunspot group classification.
This region continues to produce C-class and low M-class activity (an
M2.8 flare on 1-Jul-2012 at 19:11 UT and an M1.1 flare on 2-Jul-2012
at 00:26 UT). More C-class activity is expected in the next 24 hours,
with a good chance for additional M-class events.
The position of NOAA 11513 on 2-Jul-2012 at 09:00 UT is:
N16W02, ( 31", 212" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Trinity College Dublin)