Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a medium level. The largest event since the previous
message was a M1.3 flare on 16-May-2013 at 21:53, released by the target
region (NOAA 11748). The main following spot has shown evidence of
fragmentation over the last 6 hours. The delta spot has been stable
overall, but
the penumbra along the eastern boundary shows some evidence for the
presence
of shearing motions. There is no change to the Great Flare Watch that is
currently in effect.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 17-May-2013 at 01:45 UT is:
N11E37, ( -559", 213" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a low level. There have been no significant events in
the
previous 24 hours. The largest flare of the last 24 hours was a C1.2 on
16-May-2013 at 12:17:00 released by NOAA 11744. However, the target region
NOAA 11748 still maintains a beta-gamma-delta configuration, and has not
shown signs of decay. Minor umbrae of the preceding (negative) polarity
have
emerged within the delta-spot. Also, minor satellite spots of both
polarities have
emerged to the north and east of the delta spot. Considering the number of
X-class events produced by the region previously and that there has been no
significant signs of decay, the Great Flare Watch will remain in effect for
at least
the following 24 hours, but may be downgraded afterwards.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 16-May-2013 at 18:15 UT is:
N11E41, ( -612", 212" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a high level. A fourth X-class event (an X1.2 flare on
13-May-2013 at 01:48) has been released by NOAA 11748, which is now
designated as a having a beta-gamma-delta/Eki configuration. NOAA 11748
shows evidence of continuing flux emergence, including the appearance of a
new
positive spot to the north-east of the delta spot. The opposite polarities
within the
delta spot appear to be separating somewhat, while there is evidence of
shearing
motions along its eastern penumbral boundary. The most recent X-class event
is
of a lower magnitude than the previous one and is spaced more greatly in
time
than the previous two (~24 hours versus ~9 hours). However, the new
continued
flux emergence and shearing motions may result in further instability
within the
region. The Great Flare Watch will remain in effect for at least the next
24 hours.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 15-May-2013 at 18:00 UT is:
N11E53, ( -746", 207" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a high level. A third X-class event has been released
by
yesterday's target (now designated as NOAA 11748). This most recent event
was
an X3.2 flare that occurred on 13-May-2013 at 01:11:00. NOAA 11748 shows
some evidence for containing delta configuration in its leading spot (a
single
sunspot penumbra surrounding two umbrae of opposite polarity; the umbra in
the
north-west portion of the spot appears to be positive and the umbra in the
south-east portion appears to be negative), possibly giving the region a
beta-gamma-delta configuration. The region is still very close to the limb,
so it is
difficult to determine the Hale classification with certainty. Because of
the
possibility that the target exhibits a beta-gamma-delta configuration and
has
produced an X-class event in the previous 24 hours (that was larger than
any
previous events produced by the region), the Great Flare Watch will remain
in
effect for at least the following 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 11748 on 14-May-2013 at 18:40 UT is:
N12E71, ( -877", 212" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a high level. The X-class flare that occurred earlier
today is still in its decay phase, and no further events have yet occurred.
Since the target region has not fully rotated onto the disk, neither its
magnetic nor sunspot configurations can be assessed. However, given that
two X-class flares have been released by the new region in succession, ~14
hours apart (13-May-2013 at 02:16:00 and 16:05:00) and that the second
flare was of a higher magnitude than the first (X1.7 followed by X2.8) the
current observing plan is being upgraded to the Max Millennium coordinated
observing plan #018 (Region Likely To Produce Great Flares).
The position of the new region on 13-May-2013 at 18:40 UT is:
N11E87, ( -931", 182" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a high level. Another X-class event has been produced
by the new region rotating onto the limb at N11E89. This X2.9 flare has
occurred on 13-May-2013 at 16:05:00 and is still in its decay phase. The
region was also responsible for an M1.3 flare on 13-May-2013 at 12:03, and
other C-class activity since the previous message. The Major Flare Watch
will continue for at least the following 24 hours.
The position of the new region on 13-May-2013 at 16:50 UT is:
N11E87, ( -931", 182" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a high level. An X1.7 flare has occurred on
13-May-2013 at
02:16:00 and is currently in its declining phase. The source of the flare
is behind
the east limb, so the actual GOES magnitude is likely to be significantly
higher.
The X-class flare was prededed by two M-class and a high C-class flare. At
this
time we are implementing a Major Flare Watch due to the increased
possibility of
an M5 or greater flare over the next 24-48 hours.
The position of the flare source on 13-May-2013 at 05:40 UT is:
N11E87, ( -931", 183" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a low level. Yesterday's target region NOAA 11745
shows a
beta/Dki configuration and evidence for minor flux emergence. It has
produced
low C-class activity over the last 24 hours, so the MM#003 Major Flare
Watch
comes to an end. The new region rotating onto the disk has been designated
NOAA 11746 and was the source of the largest event of the previous 24 hours
(a
C8 flare on 11-may-2013 at 19:48) and other C-class activity. NOAA 11746
shows
evidence for continued flux emergence and is designated as the new target
region. Further low C-class activity is expected, with a chance for another
high
C-class event.
The position of the NOAA 11746 on 12-May-2013 at 18:20 UT is:
S27E53, ( -679", -406" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a low level. A new region is rotating onto the disk at
S28E75
and is showing some flux emergence and spot formation. It has been the
source
of a C-class activity (a C1.5 flare on 11-May-2013 at 12:47). Yesterday's
target
region has been designated NOAA 11745 and was the source of the largest
flare
in the previous 24 hours (a C2.2 on 11-May-2013 at 13:59) and other C-class
activity. The region is still too close to the limb for an accurate
determination of
its magnetic configuration, but minor spot emergence was visible over the
previous 6 hours. The The MM#003 Major Flare Watch will continue for the
next
24 hours, but may be called off tomorrow, pending further significant
activity and
magnetic evolution.
The position of the NOAA 11745 on 11-May-2013 at 19:00 UT is:
N11E63, ( -828", 204" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Solar activity is at a moderate level. Yesterday's target has not produced
further
significant activity and shows no remarkable spot development. NOAA region
11744 was the source of low C-class activity, and shows minor evidence for
a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. It is close in proximity to a new region
on the eastern limb that was the source of the largest event over the
previous 24 hours (an M3.9 on 10-May-2013 at 00:57). The new region is
currently rotating onto the disk and was also the source of an M1.3 event
(on
10-May-2013 at 12:56:00) and other high C-class activity. Due to the M3.9
event
being partially occulted by the limb, it is likely of a higher M magnitude.
At this
time we are implementing a Major Flare Watch due to the increased
possibility of
an M5 or greater flare over the next 24-48 hours.
The position of the new region on 10-May-2013 at 18:20 UT is:
N13E90, ( -924", 214" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Paul A. Higgins (Trinity College Dublin / LMSAL)