MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 1515 was the source of an X1.1 event at
07/06/23:08 UT. 1515 is maintaining bright dynamic H-alpha
plage and its F-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. Another
major flare event =/>M5 is possible in the next 24 hour period.
The bright plage located in the southeastern quadrant
(S17E66, -826", -299" at 15:00 UT) appears to have a complex
E-type/beta-gamma sunspot group. This region is also capable
of producing an event =/>M5 but so far has been less flare
productive than NOAA 1515. Both regions are excellent
targets for large events in the next 24 to 48 hours.
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 07 at 15:00 UT is:
S18W59 (Solar X = 770", Solar Y = -320")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 1515 continues to maintain a complex
F-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group but has lost some
of its strongest delta configuration. 1515 was the source of
countless C-class events and a few low-level M-class events
during the past 24 hours. At this time we are suspending
the MM#018 (Region Likely To Produce Great Flares) observing
plan and return to the Major Flare Watch plan. An X-class event
=/>X5 is less likely in the next 24 hours. 1515 still has
the potential to produce an M-class event =/>M5. The large
region near the southeast limb (S17E77) could also be a source
of an M-class event.
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 06 at 13:00 UT is:
S17W44 (Solar X = 628", Solar Y = -315")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#018 Great Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 1515 continues to maintain its large and
magnetically complex F-type/beta-gamma-delta classification.
1515 has multiple delta configurations located in the central
portion of its sunspot group. 1515 produced several M-class
events including an M6.1 at 07/05/11:44 UT, an M4.7 at
07/05/03:36 UT and an M4.6 at 07/04/22:09 UT. M-class events
expected with a possibility of an X-class event = or >X5 in the
next 24 to 48 hours. At this time we are implementing new
Max Millennium coordinated observing plan #018
(Region Likely To Produce Great Flares).
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 05 at 13:00 UT is:
S17W31 (Solar X = 466", Solar Y = -322")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
After decaying early in the period yesterday, target region
NOAA 1515 has increased sunspot area and count as well
as magnetic complexity. 1515 is now a large active region
with an F-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. There
is an area within the central portion that has developed
negative polarity spots and plage surrounded by positive
polarity spots and plage. 1515 was the source of numerous
C-class events and four M-class events since the last message.
The largest event was an M5.3 at 07/04/09:54 UT.
At this time we are implementing Max Millennium
observing plan #003 (Region Likely To Produce A Major Flare).
M-class events = or >M5 are likely in the next 24 hour period.
There is also a chance of an X-class event in the next 24 to
48 hours.
The position of NOAA 1515 on July 04 at 15:00 UT is:
S16W19 (Solar X = 296", Solar Y = -310")
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA 11515 was the source of three M-class flares since the last message,
including an M5.6 at 10:43 UT yesterday, and shall become the new target
region. The region is classified as a beta-gamma/E-type region and has
shown signs of decay over the past 24 hours, although the southwestern
sunspot has retained some mixed polarity. Further C-level activity expected
with chance for additional low M-class events.
The position of NOAA 11515 on 3-Jul-2011 at 12:00 UT is:
S17W03, ( 43", -327" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Target region NOAA 11513 has maintained area and increased in number
of spots, retaining a beta-gamma/D-type sunspot group classification.
This region continues to produce C-class and low M-class activity (an
M2.8 flare on 1-Jul-2012 at 19:11 UT and an M1.1 flare on 2-Jul-2012
at 00:26 UT). More C-class activity is expected in the next 24 hours,
with a good chance for additional M-class events.
The position of NOAA 11513 on 2-Jul-2012 at 09:00 UT is:
N16W02, ( 31", 212" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Trinity College Dublin)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Yesterday's target region NOAA 11515 has grown in spot area and number
of spots, but has been relatively flare quiet despite being classified
as a beta-gamma/E-type sunspot group. The new target for today will be
NOAA 11513, also a beta-gamma magnetic classification. This region has
continued to produce C-class activity since the two low M-class flares
on 28-Jun-2012 and 29-Jun-2012, including an M1.0 flare (30-Jun-2012 at
12:48 UT) and an M1.6 flare (30-Jun-2012 at 18:26 UT). Further C-class
activity is expected in the following 24 hours, with a good chance for
another low M-class event.
The position of NOAA 11513 on 1-Jul-2012 at 11:00 UT is:
N17E11, ( -172", 231" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Trinity College Dublin)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA region 11515 rotated onto the solar disk 3 days ago. This region has
been steadily increasing in complexity while gaining spot area and number
of spots, with a recent merging of the penumbrae of the leading spots.
11515 has been reclassified as a beta-gamma/D-type sunspot group since
yesterday's email and has produced several C-class events. More C-class
activity is expected in the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M-class
event.
The position of NOAA 11515 on 30-Jun-2012 at 08:30 UT is:
S17E38, ( -562", -311" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Trinity College Dublin)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
NOAA region 11512 appears to have finished its emergence phase, and
has retained a beta-gamma/D-type sunspot group classification. NOAA
region 11513 has increased in complexity and is also classified as
a beta-gamma/D-type sunspot group. In the past 24 hours NOAA 11513
has produced C-class events, along with an M2.4 flare (28-Jun-2012
16:07 UT) and an M2.2 flare (29-Jun-2012 09:13 UT). Further C-class
activity is expected in the following 24 hours, with a good chance
for another M-class event.
The position of NOAA 11513 on 29-Jun-2012 at 12:30 UT is:
N17E38, ( -559", 242" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Trinity College Dublin)
Dear RHESSI Collaborators,
Yesterday's target region NOAA 11512 has continued to grow, adding
significant area and number of spots. This region has increased in
complexity (now a beta-gamma/D-type sunspot group classification)
and has produced a few C-class events since yesterday's email, the
largest being a C4.2 flare on 28-Jun-2012 at 04:45 UT. More C-class
activity is expected in the following 24 hours, with a small chance
for a low M-class event if NOAA 11512 continues to grow.
The position of NOAA 11512 on 28-Jun-2012 at 11:30 UT is:
S15E05, ( -75", -287" )
See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml
for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.
Regards,
Shaun Bloomfield (Trinity College Dublin)